Most Outstanding Player 2017

CFL.ca has produced its list of candidates for MOP. At this point in the season I would pick Andrew Harris. Currently he is third in rushing with 656 yards, only 5 yards behind former Argo Jeremiah Johnson and Harris has a game in hand on both Johnson and Messam who leads with 770 yards. Furthermore, Messam may miss one or more games with a concussion after the brutal hit he received from BC's Micah Awe. In addition, Harris has gained 588 yards receiving including a league leading 466 YAC yards while catching 69 out of 80 pass attempts. In comparison Johnson has 323 yards in receptions and Messam only 148 yards. Harris, at his current pace, would gain 1073 yards on the ground and 962 yards in the air. If he can maintain his yardage rate along the ground and increase his reception yardage rate slightly, Harris would become the first player in CFL history to gain both 1,000 yards along the ground and by receptions. Harris is also the spark plug of the highest scoring offence per game in the league.

In terms of other possible MOP players, three defensive players are listed by CFL.ca: Alex Singleton, Solomon Elimimian, and Ed Gainey. Gainey has 8 interceptions and would have 13 at this rate by season's end (15 is the record). Singleton and Elimimian are battling for the lead in tackles with 91 and 90 respectively. Elimimian is the only defensive player in CFL history to have won the MOP award, so the odds are stacked against any defensive player winning it in any given year. IMO interceptions usually aren't as important as total defensive tackles in judging a player since ball hawks may not be good coverage players and depend to some extent on the defence employed. Of course, tackles are also affected by one's position and the nature of the defence, but do reflect a player's impact in a more consistent play-by-play manner. Since Elimimian won the only MOP defensive player award when he set the record of 143 defensive tackles, and neither Singleton (136) or Elimimian (135) are on a pace to break it, I think it is unlikely either will win it at their current rates. However, Singleton has had three consecutive double digit tackle games so such an ongoing pace would make him a top candidate for the award. I just don't think it's likely that he can. Elimimian has the advantage of being recognized as an outstanding defender which could help him, but having won it could also work against him in that some voters look harder at a player who has already won an award and think about who else is deserving. Overall, I don't think it is likely, based on history, that this is the year for a second defensive MOP winner.

In a quarterback-dominated league, QBs have won the MOP more often than anyone else. The article mentions Reilly, Mitchell, Glenn, Nichols, and Ray. Former Argo QB Trevor Harris, who is second in passing yardage and might have had a decent shot at the award, is out "weeks" according to HC Campbell, so is likely out of the running. I am surprised Glenn is on the list after ranking sixth in yardage, although his passing efficiency is first among the top nine QBs. IMO whatever slim chance he had has been greatly reduced by his current injury also. An argument can be made for each of the others. However, the Eskimos five game losing streak hurts Reilly chances although he leads the league in yardage. Mitchell is the ultimate game manager for the by far most talented team in the league, so his league-leading winning record could help him get the award, but it could also work against him because some question to what extent it is a reflection of the team rather than him. Nichols is leading the highest scoring team per game but is fifth in yardage and third in efficiency. Furthermore, Andrew Harris's season may overshadow his if Harris can keep up his current pace in rushing and reception yardage. Ray, assuming he isn't injured again, could be a candidate but his performance will likely be discounted to some extent because the Argos are likely going to have a losing season, unless they go on an extended winning streak. Overall, with no QB standing out above the others, I think there is less chance that one of them will win it this year.

The article mentions four receivers: Ellingson (1st in yardage), Green (2nd), Roosevelt (5th), and Carter (13th). I don't think the two Riders will win: Carter is far from the top in yardage despite some spectacular catches and his controversial reputation hurts him, while Roosevelt is starting to gain some recognition he is still overshadowed by Carter's history. Zyllstra who is third in reception yardage is quietly having a good season, but unless he starts dominating over the rest of the season, I don't think he will get much consideration. Sinopoli's (3rd in yardage) fine season is overshadowed by Ellingson, so if a receiver is to win it, I think it comes down to a competition between Ellingson and SJ. SJ many outstanding catches would rank him ahead of Ellingson in my book but the voting would be close Sinopoli will also face the he's a Canadian and therefore we will consider him in that category prejudice, which Andrew Harris may also face. However, I think it is much more likely that Andrew Harris wins it, other things being equal if he can maintain something near his current pace and no QB completely dominates the rest pf the season. I also expect one of the QBs could take it if Andrew Harris falters in the last third of the season, given the historical preference for QBs.

https://www.cfl.ca/2017/09/06/mop-wa...-off-11-weeks/

The biggest change in the last few weeks has been the rapid rise of Brandon Zylstra to the top of the reception yardage charts with 1482 yards. Voters do pay attention to late season performance, so this works in his favour. However, being in the league less than two years means he won't be getting any votes in recognition of long career performance or by some feeling he should have won it before, as sometimes happens.

Nevertheless, IMO, Andrew Harris simply outperforms him and everyone else on so many fronts. He currently is third in rushing with 871 yards, just 22 yards behind second place William Powell and has two games in hand on Powell. Furthermore, Harris is only 37 yards behind first place Messam, whose yardage pace has slowed down because of a missed game, a bye week and only 11 yards gained in his last game. Former Argo Jeremiah Johnson has picked up his yardage pace and is only only 27 yards behind Harris. But none of these other RBs come close to Harris's 816 reception yards, with Johnson being closest at more than 340 yards behind. Harris is also second in receptions with 94, just one behind SJ Green, who is having a career year in both number of receptions and reception yardage with 1,337 yards with 2 games to play. Thus Green should get some consideration for MOP. However, at his current pace Harris will end up with 1,045 rushing yards and 979 receiving yards, so he still has a chance to become the CFL's first ever 1,000/1,000 rushing/receiving player. In addition, he would end up with 113 receptions at this pace, smashing Craig Ellis's record of 106 for a RB. Finally, Harris is also first in hard-fought YAC yards, more than 230 ahead of second place Bakari Grant.

Ellingson is second in reception yardage but his production has been slipping recently and he has only one game left to play. So I would actually rank SJ ahead of Ellingson as he is leading in receptions and is more critical to the Argo's attack than Ellingson is to Ottawa as the RedBlacks have more depth in receivers.

Alex Singleton and Solomon Elimimian dominate defensive stats, but Elimimian has outpaced Singleton since my last post and now leads Singleton 124 to 110 in total tackles. At this pace, Elimimian would break his record of 143 total tackles with 149 putting him in contention for another MOP, but his previous win is the only one in the history of the CFL by a defensive player. On the other hand, Singleton has the advantage of playing on the winningest team and the stingiest defence and should get some consideration. I just don't think that the voters are likely to go the unconventional route and pick a defensive player again.

The top five QBs are within 700 yards of each other, so none of them is dominating the others in the same way Harris is overall compared to others at his position. Ray is only 73 yards behind first place Reilly in passing yardage but being on a team that at best could finish at .500 and is having difficulty scoring in the red zone makes it is unlikely he will get much consideration. Third place Trevor Harris is 500 yards back but also suffers from being guaranteed to end up on a team with a losing record. Bo Levi Mitchell has looked rather ordinary in some recent games and many ascribe the team's winning record more to Calgary's outstanding talent level more so than to Bo. Nichols hand injury, requiring him to wear a special glove in his last game appeared to have affected his performance as evidenced by his passing for only 172 yards and may reduce his effectiveness in his remaining games. Being almost 700 yards behind Reilly in passing yardage and on the same team as Harris also hurts his chances. Thus, I see Reilly as the best of the QBs so far this season, but I don't see his performance as being in the same ballpark as Andrew Harris's.