Should the Bombers head West?

[stuntdog]

I assumed Winnipeg would move back to their rightful place in the West division when Ottawa returns to action in 2014. Sounds like that may not be the case based on a tweet this morning from Commish Cohon:

@canadiancommish Spoke too soon about the Bombers staying in the east or moving to the west. Will get a recommendation from their board shortly.

[paulwoods13]

I cannot imagine a scenario where they don't move back west and resume the possibility of three games a year against Sask. That would keep a 5th spot open in the East for Atlantic region or Quebec/Laval region.

[Mulder]

I cannot imagine a scenario where they don't move back west and resume the possibility of three games a year against Sask. That would keep a 5th spot open in the East for Atlantic region or Quebec/Laval region.

I think they'll remain in the east until that the 10th team gets off the ground. Currently it looks as if there is really nobody stepping up for that 10th team.

[paulwoods13]

I think they'll remain in the east until that the 10th team gets off the ground. Currently it looks as if there is really nobody stepping up for that 10th team.

Right, but what reason (other than inertia) would justify keeping a team that is based in the West and has its biggest rivalry out there in the East?

[Mulder]

Right, but what reason (other than inertia) would justify keeping a team that is based in the West and has its biggest rivalry out there in the East?

It's only a western team by 25km based on the Longitudinal Centre of Canada.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Centre_of_Canada

Beside that, Getting the Ottawa franchise off the ground, and to make sure they are competitive. The last thing the eastern conference needs is more cross-overs. IMO, having 4 teams in one conference and 5 in the other makes it more likely to happen.

[stuntdog]

Perhaps the Bombers are trying to weasel $$$ out of the league for a move back to the West. In '06 when they moved to the East they received a $700,000 "transfer fee" to offset marketing and travel costs.

Or maybe the league is asking for a refund

[paulwoods13]

It's only a western team by 25km based on the Longitudinal Centre of Canada.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Centre_of_Canada

Beside that, Getting the Ottawa franchise off the ground, and to make sure they are competitive. The last thing the eastern conference needs is more cross-overs. IMO, having 4 teams in one conference and 5 in the other makes it more likely to happen.

Geographical realities do not reflect the fact that since it was formed, Manitoba has identified itself as a western province. Any Bomber fan over the age of 40 will tell you that the team should never have left the West.

Given how frequently we've had crossovers, I doubt it becomes even more likely with nine teams than it was with eight. But beyond that, I don't think putting Ottawa in a five-team division does anything to make it more competitive than it would be in a four-team division. If they were in a four-team East, they'd have a chance to cross over into the West if they finished fourth. If they were in a five-team East, they'd have a chance to cross over into the West if they finished fourth. Surely we do not want to structure the divisions on the basis that Winnipeg is lousy and we should help Ottawa finish ahead of them? Helping Ottawa be competitive off the bat comes down in large part to how generous teams are in the expansion draft, not how the divisions are structured, IMO.

[ArgoRavi]

Perhaps the Bombers are trying to weasel $$$ out of the league for a move back to the West. In '06 when they moved to the East they received a $700,000 "transfer fee" to offset marketing and travel costs.

Ding, ding, ding, we have a winner! I am sure that the Bombers are looking for another payout like this. I agree with Paul as I see no compelling reason whatsoever for the Bombers to stay in the East.

[Mulder]

Geographical realities do not reflect the fact that since it was formed, Manitoba has identified itself as a western province. Any Bomber fan over the age of 40 will tell you that the team should never have left the West.

Given how frequently we've had crossovers, I doubt it becomes even more likely with nine teams than it was with eight. But beyond that, I don't think putting Ottawa in a five-team division does anything to make it more competitive than it would be in a four-team division. If they were in a four-team East, they'd have a chance to cross over into the West if they finished fourth. If they were in a five-team East, they'd have a chance to cross over into the West if they finished fourth. Surely we do not want to structure the divisions on the basis that Winnipeg is lousy and we should help Ottawa finish ahead of them? Helping Ottawa be competitive off the bat comes down in large part to how generous teams are in the expansion draft, not how the divisions are structured, IMO.

How do you figure? If the east has 4 teams and west has 5. It becomes more likely. Especially if Ottawa isn't competitive the first few years. Which is what I'm arguing. Then, a collapse or under preforming season by 1 other team in the east would pretty much guarantee a cross over. Meanwhile with 5 teams in the east until Ottawa is competitive would almost remove a western team crossing over. Unless 3 teams are absolutely horrible and split the games vs each other only as their only wins.

[AngeloV]

There is no way in hell they stay in the east.

[paulwoods13]

How do you figure? If the east has 4 teams and west has 5. It becomes more likely. Especially if Ottawa isn't competitive the first few years. Which is what I'm arguing. Then, a collapse or under preforming season by 1 other team in the east would pretty much guarantee a cross over. Meanwhile with 5 teams in the east until Ottawa is competitive would almost remove a western team crossing over. Unless 3 teams are absolutely horrible and split the games vs each other only as their only wins.

By my count, it has already happened six times in the last 12 seasons. For it to be even more likely, it would have to happen more than half the time. I'm no statistician but I just don't believe that it is likely to happen more than half the time, regardless of which division has five teams and which division has four.

[Mulder]

By my count, it has already happened six times in the last 12 seasons. For it to be even more likely, it would have to happen more than half the time. I'm no statistician but I just don't believe that it is likely to happen more than half the time, regardless of which division has five teams and which division has four.

Between 2002 and 2005. (4 season) With 4 teams in the east, 5 in the west. The Cross over happened 3 times.
Between 2006 and 2012 (7 seasons) With 4 and 4, The cross over happened 3 times.

By my count, that's more than half (75%).

[gilthethrill]

With the return of Ottawa, the Eastern Division does not require 2 expansion teams..Winnipeg should move back to the West.

[AngeloV]

With the return of Ottawa, the Eastern Division does not require 2 expansion teams..Winnipeg should move back to the West.

LOL!!! Great zinger gil!!

[gilthethrill]

Seriously though...watching games from Winnipeg through out the years, it always has that Western Canada feel to it.

[Argo57]

Move Winnipeg back to the West (where they belong) and scrap the crossover, Grey Cup should be East vs West, it's called tradition.

[paulwoods13]

Between 2002 and 2005. (4 season) With 4 teams in the east, 5 in the west. The Cross over happened 3 times.
Between 2006 and 2012 (7 seasons) With 4 and 4, The cross over happened 3 times.

By my count, that's more than half (75%).

And if we were to go back before 2002, the frequency of crossover (or potential crossover in years when the rule did not exist) would decrease, I suspect.

Regardless of the specific numbers, crossover has happened frequently of late. That is better than having under-qualified teams either in the playoffs or with a disproportionately high chance of getting in, IMO.

I don't believe there is any sensible reason to keep Wpg in the East. Certainly, "protecting" the expansion team by making it (in theory) less likely that a Western team would cross over and "steal" its playoff spot -- if that is what you are suggesting; maybe I've misinterpreted -- is not a valid reason, IMO. Protect the expansion team by letting them build a good roster quickly (which I believe the CFL is trying to do), and then let the competition begin.

I realize Cohon is describing this as not yet decided, and I'm sure in the interest of good governance and league relations he's allowing the board to make the decision, and neither dictating it nor setting it up as a fait accompli. But I firmly believe the board will make the sensible decision to return Winnipeg to the only division that reflects the region in which it is located.

[Mulder]

And if we were to go back before 2002, the frequency of crossover (or potential crossover in years when the rule did not exist) would decrease, I suspect.

Regardless of the specific numbers, crossover has happened frequently of late. That is better than having under-qualified teams either in the playoffs or with a disproportionately high chance of getting in, IMO.

I don't believe there is any sensible reason to keep Wpg in the East. Certainly, "protecting" the expansion team by making it (in theory) less likely that a Western team would cross over and "steal" its playoff spot -- if that is what you are suggesting; maybe I've misinterpreted -- is not a valid reason, IMO. Protect the expansion team by letting them build a good roster quickly (which I believe the CFL is trying to do), and then let the competition begin.

I realize Cohon is describing this as not yet decided, and I'm sure in the interest of good governance and league relations he's allowing the board to make the decision, and neither dictating it nor setting it up as a fait accompli. But I firmly believe the board will make the sensible decision to return Winnipeg to the only division that reflects the region in which it is located.

In theory???? I just provided you the perfect case study in which shows that bringing in an expansion team into a division with one less than the other division means a crossover 75% of the time. And you don't believe those facts to be true? Yikes. I'm not saying don't move Wpg over. I'm saying wait until Ottawa is competitive. Or we might finally see that all western grey cup we've been waiting for.

[1argoholic]

They are west, always been west just stuck in the east. Have to go back.

[paulwoods13]

In theory???? I just provided you the perfect case study in which shows that bringing in an expansion team into a division with one less than the other division means a crossover 75% of the time. And you don't believe those facts to be true? Yikes. I'm not saying don't move Wpg over. I'm saying wait until Ottawa is competitive. Or we might finally see that all western grey cup we've been waiting for.

I wouldn't describe it as a case study, or as proof of what will happen in the future. Yes, there have been a lot of crossovers in the past decade (as we both said). But it's impossible to know what will happen in the future on the basis of what happened in the past. We can surmise what might happen, but probability is not certainty.

I happen to believe Ottawa will be competitive very quickly and the East does not need to be protected from the possibility of a cross-over. Even if Ottawa sucks, the chances of an all-western Grey Cup are slim because a team crossing over would have to win two playoff games on the road. That almost never happens within a division, and has never yet happened across divisions and time zones. Not to say it couldn't happen, but IMO the slim possibility is not a good reason to keep Wpg in the East. And of course we have already had five "all-western" Grey Cups in the past 25 years (Winnipeg against a West Division team.)

When Ottawa returns, I assume that we will retain an 18-game schedule, with teams playing home-and-away against each of the other eight teams, plus two additional games within their own division. So Ottawa will be playing all western teams twice, whether there are four of them or five. If they are terrible, they'll probably be terrible against whoever they play, regardless of division. And as I said, I don't think they will be terrible because the expansion draft rules are pretty generous this time.