The CFL Draft Prospectus; Performance 2003-2013

[Jon Gonzo]

Recently, we've discussed (at length) the trade for Drew Willy.

Time will tell if this is a good trade or bad trade.

To be perfectly up front, my position is that this was a foolhardy trade and I will do my best to display the basis of my thought mathematically.

I am not contending that you NEVER trade a First Rounder.

In fact, you should if it's for a bonafide starting QB or another bluechip prospect whom you've scouted and prefer/ or Canadian starter in a position of weakness.

Willy was on his way out in Winnipeg, and we actually did them a favour beyond giving up and All Star DB, and the 3rd Round pick from 2018.

It's my conclusion that you don't make this trade, and I cannot approve of it REGARDLESS of how Willy/or the player returned, turns out. It's bad business.

So here comes some math.

The CFL Draft, like all pro drafts, is an inexact science. Yet, it is the lifeblood of the CFL. Bad draft or not, it is relative as it is how this entire league fills it's rosters with serviceable pro football players. As we have seen, the better the Canadians on your roster; the better your team is.

This has been acknowledged by every GM who has ever had success in this game. It's beyond a cliche. It's an axiom.

As in most Pro Drafts we will, no doubt, be reminded that despite the odd blip that the First Round Pick has a higher % chance to make a difference on your team. In most cases this will filter on down in order, but most importantly, the 10 year sample will definitively paint the picture for us.

I have decided to break the Drafts down in a 10 year sample.

We will, piece by piece, year by year, examine the 2003 through 2013 CFL Drafts

That way we are fairly well established in our rankings.

I will be ranking them based on this ranking system;


10 year perspective CFL Draft (2003-2013)

6 –Hall of Famer/future HOF/ Multiple CFL All Star Awards (3+)/ Best Canadian Award Winner
5- CFL All Star// Grey Cup Canadian MVP
4- CFL Divisional All Star/ Nominee for Team Player Awards in Position
3- CFL Starter/ 2 or more seasons/ 5 Plus CFL Seasons overall
2- CFL Backup / most of career
1 –Played at least 8 games/ or CFL 'Futures Pick' that had a career in the NFL
0- Bust

For example; Jerome Messam, Jon Cornish, Ben Cahoon, Brent Johnson, Jason Clermont and Andy Fantuz are easy, off the top picks for 6 points.

We will establish a point ranking per round, and then we will rank the draft overall, some player synopsis and the most effective/least effective Teams in the Draft.

I will be doing this draft by draft, as time permits, until we reach a conclusion.

[Argo57]

Well stated Gonzo, agreed Winnipeg would not have kept Willy around beyond the end of the 2016 season for various reasons.
I can only imagine Winnipeg's shock that A) somebody actually called in regards to acquiring his services and B) the team calling offered the package they did for basically a reclamation project with a mediocre (at best) track record in the CFL.
Unfortunately for all Argo fans it was our team's management team that made the call.

[Jon Gonzo]

2003 CFL Draft;

After helping the Huskies win a couple of Vanier Cups, the 1st CFL Pick in the 2003 Draft was one time Argonaut property Steve Morley, out of St. Mary's.

He was a one of 4 Stampeder picks. Calgary scores a draft high 14 points in one round alone! This is an example of fantastic work, and they no doubt will win this years Draft --although there are no future HOF or Blue Chippers in 2003. The best pick in the Draft may come close however.

Morley ended up playing 7 NFL Games for the Jets and spent 4 seasons in the NFL with the Packers, Jets, and Seahawks before returning to the CFL with the Argo's.

He had a solid CFL career, was 11 years a Pro and played mostly as a starter in all 5 positions on the line.

He gets ranked a 3, with other picks outranking him including 2nd and 3rd picks Joe McGrath (by the Stamps) and Julian Radlein (Tiger Cats). Wes Lyjack and Paris Jackson also outranked the First Overall Pick. Three players got zeroes for the Eskimo's twice, and the Als once.

1.Steve Morley - 3
2.Joe McGrath - 4
3.Julian Radlein – 4
4.Emmanuel Casseus – 0
5.Wes Lyjack – 4
6.Paris Jackson – 4
7.Marc Calixte – 3
8.Randy Spencer – 0
9.Andrew Noel – 0


The Argos had no picks in any of Rounds 1,2, and 3, and then made a solid 4th Round Pick with Ray Mariuz (3 points) out of Mac.

Other players of note in the 2nd Round include; Richard Karikari (5) Montreal, Javiar Glatt (4) BC and future Argo Taylor Robertson (4) also by the Stampeders

Other top ranked players; include Patrick Kabongo (Ottawa - 3rd) 4, and Dave Stala (Montreal - 6th) 5.

The Argos also got Michael Palmer in this draft (2) in the 6th Round but their other pick stiffed.

Here are the ROUNDS ranked by points/ based on effectiveness

First Round - 22 Points (32% Gonzo Ranking)
Second Round - 17 Points (25%)
Third Round - 9 points (7.5%)
Fourth Round - 6 points (under 1%)
Fifth Round - 7 points (under 1%)
Sixth Round - 7 points (under 1%)

The Pick of the Draft is Dave Stala by Montreal.

And the winning Team is easily Calgary with 16 points.

The Argos get a measly 5 points.

[Neely2005]

Wow, amazing work! Thank you!!

[paulwoods13]

Does not matter. It is relative, and still the BEST way to collect affordable homebrew football players. Is there a better way? I will show you as soon as I can, that the chances of getting a better player in the First Round are higher in the CFL, and there is anecdotal evidence available to support my claim across the board in sport. I have already shown the last ten years in the GREY CUP. Best Canadian was a First Rounder 6 of 10 times. And 2 of those 4 were a Kicker and a QB. Again, relative as they are drafted lower in most to all cases, by all teams.

Notwithstanding that the debate has apparently shifted from my proposition that fewer than 25%, and maybe fewer than 10%, of players drafted turn out to be "outstanding," I eagerly await whatever statistical evidence you uncover. Six Best Canadians in 10 Grey Cups coming from the first round does not prove the case, considering there are 80-90 first-rounders in any 10-year period (depending on whether the league has eight or nine teams).

[Shatto]

Excellent research and obviously it involved a fair amount of time and work. Thank you. A far less time consuming search, shows that the lineup (depth chart) for the Argos last game this season, had only three Canadian players who were not drafted. The vast majority were Argo draft choices with a small number who were drafted by other teams and obtained by trades etc. This demonstrates that a team's Canadian talent is obtained through the draft. The better the draft, the stronger the depth. Giving up a first round draft choice for anything less than a potential all-star would appear to be a foolish decision. Maybe Willy will become that all-star but it is highly unlikely.

[Jon Gonzo]

Notwithstanding that the debate has apparently shifted from my proposition that fewer than 25%, and maybe fewer than 10%, of players drafted turn out to be "outstanding," I eagerly await whatever statistical evidence you uncover. Six Best Canadians in 10 Grey Cups coming from the first round does not prove the case, considering there are 80-90 first-rounders in any 10-year period (depending on whether the league has eight or nine teams).

See the other thread as it develops. "Outstanding" is relative. The CFL Draft is how CFL Teams fill their rosters with Canadian players at close to 100%. It is the source, the pipeline, and it's vital. The man you so passionately defend has said so countless times himself. Well researched teams win bad drafts. Other teams get skunked. There are trends and this ultimately shows itself in the standings.

[ArgoGabe22]

See the other thread as it develops. "Outstanding" is relative. The CFL Draft is how CFL Teams fill their rosters. It is the source, the pipeline, and it's vital. The man you so passionately defend has said so countless times himself. Well researched teams win bad drafts. Other teams get skunked. There are trends and this ultimately shows itself in the standings.

Or free agency and trades. And I believe free agency has really changed the league. I'm not sure we'll be seeing many players like Ben Cahoon who spend their entire career with one team. Looking at the past MOCs in the Grey Cup since 2000, only 6/16 won it with a team that did not draft them, but that number is now 3/6 if you only look at the last 6 years.

Players drafted in 2014 are starting to become free agents this season so it'll be interesting to track but if you look at 2013, only 7 players out the 27 drafted (2/9 in first round) in first three rounds still play for the team that drafted them. From 2012 only 7/22 in first three rounds (2/7 in first round) and 0/2 from supplemental draft still play for their original teams. A lot of these players are also out of the league.

People like bringing up the Stampeder's recent success but they haven't always drafted successfully within the first two rounds until very recently in 2015 and 2016. So it's not they have always got it right either.

Guess I'll have to wait and see with what your analysis says, which was fantastic btw.

[Jon Gonzo]

2004 CFL Draft;

This is Adam Rita's first draft, and it's another poor performance from the Toronto Argonauts.

Like 2003, the Team didn't have 2nd and 3rd Round picks, but they did have 2 First Rounders. Both which were soundly wasted on Mark Moroz (OL- 4th overall, From Wake Forest) and JF Trembley, a WR from Laval, who had hamstring issues and ended up playing something like 5 games. I also recall Moroz having injury history and not the heart to overcome them.

The Number One pick overall was current Argo Lineman Wayne Smith from Appalachian State by the Tiger Cats.

On the surface this pick looks weak, however, it is sound. Wayne Smith has had a serviceable CFL career. He has started in over 40 games, he has backed up, he has played nearly every position on the Offensive Line in his long 13 year career and he is just the type of player that helps CFL Teams fill their rosters.

Looking at this Draft, he probably would be better suited to have gone late in the first, not first overall however.

1. Wayne Smith -4
2. Ibrahim Khan – 3
3. David Azzi – 2
4. Mark Moroz – 1 (Argos)
5. O.J. Atogwe – 1
6. Ducamel Augustin – 0
7. JF Tremblay – 0 (Argos)
8. Alain Kashama – 3
9. Amarapreet Sanghera - 0

The 2nd Round is even worse, but the Tiger Cats got another good pick with Marwan Hage (14th overall). He's a 5 pointer. But that's really it for the 2nd

The anomaly in this draft is the amazing 3rd Round.

The 3rd Round featured the player who probably should have been the First Pick overall, current Argo OT, Josh Bourke by the Montreal Alouettes. He's nearly a 6 point player.
Jon Ryan, who currently kicks for the Seahawks in the NFL is another great pick. Winnipeg got him 24th and he was worthy of a First Round selection. Kickers and QB's are not usually taken in the first couple of rounds. Another NFL'er JP Ladouceur, who long snaps for the Cowboys was Ottawa's pick at #29 and former Argo Chad Rempel rounds it out at pick #35 by Edmonton.

The Argos blew every single one of their Draft Picks also grabbing DL - Frank Hoffman, Mike and Brandan Mahoney. A pitiful performance.


Here are the ROUNDS ranked by points/ based on effectiveness

First Round - 11 Points (21% Gonzo Ranking)
Second Round - 7 Points (13%)
Third Round - 21 points (40%)**************
Fourth Round - 9 points (16%)
Fifth Round - 2 points (under 1%)
Sixth Round - 3 points (under 1%)





The Pick of the Draft is Josh Bourke by Montreal.

And the winning Team is the Hamilton Tiger Cats grabbing a couple of future CFL vets on the Offensive Line.

The Argos get a measly 1 point.

[OV Argo]

Nice work Jon; I've been a big follower of the CFL draft for some time (got into it more in the mid 90s sort of), but I've never tried to do a break-down or analysis like you are doing here.

Now - I dare you to play Toronto Tontos by Max Webster on your radio show this week - I hear you when I'm out and about in my truck sometimes. ;o)

[Jon Gonzo]

Nice work Jon; I've been a big follower of the CFL draft for some time (got into it more in the mid 90s sort of), but I've never tried to do a break-down or analysis like you are doing here.

Now - I dare you to play Toronto Tontos by Max Webster on your radio show this week - I hear you when I'm out and about in my truck sometimes. ;o)

No Cigarettes, no a Matches!

I love Max

[Jon Gonzo]

2005 CFL Draft;

In Adam Rita's 2nd Season as Argo GM, we begin to see some improvements in the teams drafting record.

In fact, the choice of Jeff Keeping, who was an athletic TE (Western) that Rita was very keen on, may be the pick of the draft.

Keeping easily bulked up and played several positions after he was chosen as the 18th pick out of Western, eventually landing as a competent starting Center, with exceptional leadership skills, for several CFL seasons in Toronto.

He's the 1st Argo in our 10 year look back -- to reach 5 points.

Jesse Lumsden should have been the pick of the Draft, but injuries held him back. The Ticats took him 6th overall. He got a 4.

The Number One overall pick wasn't a very good pick. Calgary took Laval DE Miguel Robede. He ended up as an Argo when he was involved in a trade for PK Sam, but only nets a 2 grade.

1. Miguel Robede - 2
2. Cam Yeow - 0
3. Matt O'Meara - 2
4. Chris Best – 4
5. Matthieu Proulx - 4
6. Jesse Lumsden – 4
7. Nathan Hoffart - 0
8. Alex Bwenge - 2
9. Nick Kaczur – 1 (Argos)


One player we never got to watch in Double Blue was Brantford's Nick Kaczur. He started 62 games as an OT for the New England Patriots and surely would have been a great first pick had he even been able to play just a couple of seasons up North.

Raymond Fontaine was a decent special teams player (and LB) from Kentucy and was the Argos 2nd Round pick, just ahead of Keeping.

The 3rd Round Pick was forfeited for Riall Johnson, which proved to be worth it; and getting quick, crafty, and the uber-smart Bryan Crawford in the 5th Round was another solid pick.

He ended up as one of the finest Toronto Special Teams player of the 90's, and in fact became a Team Captain. He got a 3 grade as the 44th pick that year.

Here are the ROUNDS ranked by points/ based on effectiveness

First Round - 19 Points (32% Gonzo Ranking)
Second Round - 13 Points (22%)
Third Round - 8 points (14%)
Fourth Round - 4 points (under 1%)
Fifth Round - 12 points (20%)
Sixth Round - 3 points (under 1%)

The Pick of the Draft; Jeff Keeping, Jesse Lumsden, Chris Best and John Comiskey (19th overall, Edmonton).

And the winning Team is; The Argo's. Even after missing on Kaczur, he proved worth the pick because picking up 3 other very serviceable players made it easier to reach. Nice bounce back.

2006 coming soon!

[paulwoods13]

See the other thread as it develops. "Outstanding" is relative. The CFL Draft is how CFL Teams fill their rosters with Canadian players at close to 100%. It is the source, the pipeline, and it's vital. The man you so passionately defend has said so countless times himself. Well researched teams win bad drafts. Other teams get skunked. There are trends and this ultimately shows itself in the standings.

This analysis will be interesting to watch as it unfolds. I have never argued that the draft is not important or the primary source of Canadian players. But I have argued that not many players drafted develop into "outstanding" players. I also agree "outstanding" is a relative term. But using your system, it seems to me a guy would have to score five or six points to be considered outstanding. Julian Radlein scores four points. He was a decent player for five seasons, but outstanding? Same with Wes Lysack -- played a long time, but outstanding? Not in my eyes.

And I think the scoring system has at least one flaw -- simply playing eight games should not get you a point, IMO. Mark Moroz cannot be considered anything other than an utter bust, yet he has one point. Perhaps you need to weight the scoring against the rounds. A guy who plays eight games from the first round is a lot worse pick than a guy who played eight games out of the sixth round, yet both score the same. Conversely, a Hall of Fame type chosen in the sixth round should maybe score higher than one chosen in the first round.

[paulwoods13]

Jon Ryan, who currently kicks for the Seahawks in the NFL is another great pick. Winnipeg got him 24th and he was worthy of a First Round selection. Kickers and QB's are not usually taken in the first couple of rounds. Another NFL'er JP Ladouceur, who long snaps for the Cowboys was Ottawa's pick at #29 and former Argo Chad Rempel rounds it out at pick #35 by Edmonton.

What score did you assign to Ryan and Ladouceur? As good as Ryan was in his one year, the fact he left and never returned should cause a score reduction IMO -- the pick was essentially wasted.

[Neely2005]

This analysis will be interesting to watch as it unfolds. I have never argued that the draft is not important or the primary source of Canadian players. But I have argued that not many players drafted develop into "outstanding" players. I also agree "outstanding" is a relative term. But using your system, it seems to me a guy would have to score five or six points to be considered outstanding. Julian Radlein scores four points. He was a decent player for five seasons, but outstanding? Same with Wes Lysack -- played a long time, but outstanding? Not in my eyes.

And I think the scoring system has at least one flaw -- simply playing eight games should not get you a point, IMO. Mark Moroz cannot be considered anything other than an utter bust, yet he has one point. Perhaps you need to weight the scoring against the rounds. A guy who plays eight games from the first round is a lot worse pick than a guy who played eight games out of the sixth round, yet both score the same. Conversely, a Hall of Fame type chosen in the sixth round should maybe score higher than one chosen in the first round.

I disagree. The scoring system is fine. If you play almost half a season that's noteworthy and worth a point IMO. Also if you make the NFL then it wasn't a bad pick and is worth points.

[Jon Gonzo]

What score did you assign to Ryan and Ladouceur? As good as Ryan was in his one year, the fact he left and never returned should cause a score reduction IMO -- the pick was essentially wasted.

Jon Ryan was a CFL All-Star, and was outstanding in 2005. He helped his team greatly. He was assigned a score as indicated on the table.

Ladouoceur gets a point. He obviously was worth picking, as he was good enough to play his career in the NFL. We don't know it's wasted. These players are proven to be worth taking a chance on as future prospects. Nick Kazcur was worth taking. I am not holding CFL GM's responsible for not having a crystal ball.

Mark Moroz was on the Toronto Roster for two seasons, hence, the point.

Stocking rosters with solid players is exceptionally important in the CFL due to the ratios, and it is reflected in the table. To get an exceptional Canadian player, you have a way better chance of landing him with a high Draft Pick.

Which I am in the process of proving to you. I believe you are on the record as underestimating the importance of a First Round Pick. I will show you that you are wrong.

[Jon Gonzo]

The system is the same for all players graded. Therefore, it is indeed relative. Radlien was the Eastern Rookie of the Year and an All Star the following year. Outstanding players often come from the States. Like Canadian Content in media, all things are not equal. Radlien had five solid seasons with the Tiger Cats, which is over the average span that an average Football player plays. Again, all players are graded with the same table, in each and every round. It's relative.

[Will]

Thank you for doing this Gonzo!

[Jon Gonzo]

The system is the same for all players graded. Therefore, it is indeed relative. Radlien was the Eastern Rookie of the Year and an All Star the following year. Outstanding players often come from the States. Like Canadian Content in media, all things are not equal. Radlien had five solid seasons with the Tiger Cats, which is over the average span that an average Football player plays. Again, all players are graded with the same table, in each and every round. It's relative.

[Jon Gonzo]

Thank you for doing this Gonzo!

Happy to do this as a big Argo fan, and a fan of history/sport history.

Also, I believe there is no room for excuses in sport. Lets set the record straight as to the importance and true value of a First Round Pick.

It is coveted, and I am happy to help try and show us why.

Trades like the Willy trade don't necessarily precipitate disaster, but they certainly invite it's potential.

It's bad business.