Of course all models are based on assumptions. Looking at history for possible scenarios provides us with a range of possibilities.

There is also a question as to how the coronavirus will behave in the long term. It might be seasonal, abating with warmer weather.

It might act like the Zika virus, a mosquito-borne illness that causes birth defects. For much of 2016, it devastated communities in South America and Southeast Asia. But for the past three years, there have been few cases.

It might act like the 2009 swine flu pandemic, which infected millions and caused more than 10,000 deaths. But now that virus is just part of our annual flu cycle, according to Andrew Pekosz, a professor of microbiology at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.

Or it might be like the 1918 Spanish flu, thought to be the deadliest in human history. That disease, which killed at least 50 million people worldwide (the equivalent of 200 million today), came in three waves. The second, which came in fall 1918, was by far the most deadly.

Although much is still unknown about the timeline of the coronavirus outbreak, most experts agree: China and South Korea are on a downswing after aggressive testing and quarantine measures. The rest of the world would do well to follow suit.

“China showed us what it looked like to be able to act to stop it,” Dr. Bar-Yam said. “They’ve stopped it. We have to choose whether we’re going to do that.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/16/h...shut-down.html