How Could the Coronavirus affect the Argos and the CFL

[jerrym]

Welcome back, Jerry. Feeling better?

Great to see you back!

Thanks guys. Yes I am definitely feeling better. I don't know if I officially had the virus as I couldn't get tested because when I got sick they were only testing those in BC who had been out of the country recently or had been in contact with those who had. However, I had many of the symptoms, plus, like many others who have had Covid-19, it was a long period of up one day and down the next for a couple of weeks, something that I have never experienced with any other illness.

As sceptical of a 2020 season as I was in my last post, I have even more negative info to present today from a United States poll of 1000+ people by Seton Hall University, which itself has a wide range of sports including a pretty good basketball team and is therefore hardly likely to favour such a negative response, on the question "Would you consider it safe to attend a sporting event before a vaccine for Covid-19 is developed?"
Results: safe 12%
safe if there is social distancing 13%
not at all 72%
unsure 3%

This suggests that all sports events based on fan attendance will face an enormous challenge if sports events are allowed again. Even if the "not at all" group is cut in half as people tire of sheltering in home, this still creates an enormous challenge.

I also got some discouraging information about a vaccine from three virus and epidemiological experts on a TV program this morning. They explained that no vaccine has ever been developed in less than four years for extensive use. The closest is the Ebola vaccine which already had ten years of preliminary research done on it (Third World diseases don't get much research money in the First World) and then had fast ramp up when Ebola first hit North America and Europe. An experimental vaccine (meaning not all the safety tests normally done on a new vaccine were done) was developed in a year and used in high infectious areas, but it still took four more years to get it produced in large enough quantities to be widely available. In other words, these experts were saying that even if we were to develop a vaccine after a year it would probably take four to five years to vaccinate billions of people worldwide. Being a developed country we might well get a chance to be vaccinated early, but even that would likely leave the 2021 season a question mark, let alone the 2020 CFL season.

The other way of doing this is to open up the economy and allow the virus to spread until we have "heard immunity", which is typically represented as 80% of the entire population, which causes the infection rate to drop dramatically because it is hard to find someone that is not immune, but this also produces a lot of deaths, especially among seniors. However, even this is coming into question, as the World Health Organization is reporting that some data from Asian countries suggests that people who have been infected and recovered can be reinfected. But that question remains up in the air.

For those who are willing to take the risk for themselves, the question is are they still willing to bring it home to their family, because early Chinese data suggests that 75-80% of infections occurred in the home because of the repeated close contacts between those living in the same house. In Canada it has been primarily among seniors in long-term care homes with CBC reporting that 65% of all Covid-19 reported deaths in Canada occurring in senior homes. This percentage is almost certainly high because once the death rate at seniors homes became apparent these homes were given priority testing, while testing in the general population is still low.

Nevertheless, this points to another problem for the Argos and the CFL: much of their core fan base is in that age group that is most susceptible to Covid-19, making it more risky for them to attend CFL games.

[Wobbler]

It's great to see you back, Jerry. There is a whole thread in the Mod forum dedicated to concern about your welfare and our unsuccessful attempts to contact you!

Your post is more about the virus in general than about the CFL, though. Perhaps you'd like to copy & paste it to start a new thread in Sociable? Managing this disease and its impact on society is a pretty big deal and certainly worthy of discussion.

[paulwoods13]

Doug Ford has laid out a roadmap for reopening the economy and said even when the first three phases (lasting 2-4 weeks each) are done, there won't be large gatherings at sporting events and concerts. It would appear the only chance the CFL has of a partial season in 2020 is playing in empty stadiums, and I can't see how that is financially feasible since the league relies more than any other league on ticket sales.

[AngeloV]

Doug Ford has laid out a roadmap for reopening the economy and said even when the first three phases (lasting 2-4 weeks each) are done, there won't be large gatherings at sporting events and concerts. It would appear the only chance the CFL has of a partial season in 2020 is playing in empty stadiums, and I can't see how that is financially feasible since the league relies more than any other league on ticket sales.

I already have stated I don't believe there will be a 2020 season. Again, I hope I'm wrong, but I am not counting on it.

[paulwoods13]

Ambrosie was on the Fan this morning and was asked whether the CFL could play in empty stadiums. He said they are looking into all sorts of possibilities, but admitted empty stadiums are not something that works with the league's revenue model. He also noted the sheer size of football compared to other sports -- with dozens of individuals needing to be around both teams -- might make it difficult to get approval from public health authorities in the foreseeable future. If they are not already running scenarios for a year without football, and planning for how they can emerge successfully from that, they should be.

https://www.sportsnet.ca/590/good-sh...ut-fans-seats/

[Shatto]

The worst possible scenario would be the NFL playing this season (empty stands or not) and the CFL not playing at all this season. It would be very hard for the league to bounce back from that.

[argolio]

The worst possible scenario would be the NFL playing this season (empty stands or not) and the CFL not playing at all this season. It would be very hard for the league to bounce back from that.

NFL is in its own world. With its massive TV contract, it's the one North American league that can operate a season with no fans and maintain a regular salary structure.

I think the worst scenario would be if every other league played and the CFL did not. Not necessarily fatal for the CFL, but it would be a bad look.

[AngeloV]

NFL is in its own world. With its massive TV contract, it's the one North American league that can operate a season with no fans and maintain a regular salary structure.

I think the worst scenario would be if every other league played and the CFL did not. Not necessarily fatal for the CFL, but it would be a bad look.

I think the NBA likely could manage as well, but unlike either football league, it's a little trickier with 1 team based in a different country. A lot of border crossing involved.

[1971GreyCup]

The CFL has asked the federal government for up to $150 million in financial aid. I think this is a reasonable ask. I don’t see the league as a whole making it under the current circumstances. Unlikely to be a 2020 season.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/mobile/sports...-aid-1.4916248

[Argo57]

The CFL has requested funds from the feds to help weather the storm, dire outlook for the league if the 2020 season gets scrapped which is a distinct possibility.
People are concerned with their health and well-being as well as providing for their families at this time which rightfully makes the leagues concerns a low priority.

[paulwoods13]

Why is it a reasonable ask? Because the league won't survive without govt assistance? If so, how is that different from every restaurant (or any other type of business) that is going to go out of business because of covid? Should the govt bail out everything? And fund all the PPE that's needed, pay more to LTC employees and nurses, etc.? Clearly a lot of money is being spent and more is going to need to be spent to keep society from imploding, but is money for an enjoyable pastime favoured by a small segment of the population gonna make the cut?

[Mightygoose]

Can't see the feds covering any bills aside from programs they already have like the wage subsidy and work share programs.

Maybe if it's a loan perhaps. Otherwise, just cancel 2020 and focus on the 2021 campaign.

The Ti-Cats drought will continue

[jerrym]

The Ti-Cats drought will continue

There's always a bright side.

[1971GreyCup]

Clearly the league thinks it’s a reasonable ask or they wouldn’t have asked.

Five hundred million dollars was already allocated for Sports & Culture. Check off two boxes for the CFL.

Who knows, they may have asked for a loan and not a straight handout. The feds have access to historically low interest rates. Right now the Government of Canada pays just over 1% for interest. Under this scenario a team would be on the hook for about $500,000 per year. I am sure that’s a fraction of the economic destruction of the end of the league in terms of facilities, employment and tourism.

Who knows, with a CFL survival plan and adequate capital, Halifax might use the crisis for an infrastructure initiative to stimulate the local economy.

Maybe under this scenario, the league might be able to then play in empty stadiums and keep the TV contract and survive.

I see it as a creative approach to save the league. We’ll soon see if the country agrees.

[paulwoods13]

Who knows, they may have asked for a loan and not a straight handout. The feds have access to historically low interest rates. Right now the Government of Canada pays just over 1% for interest. Under this scenario a team would be on the hook for about $500,000 per year.

How did you arrive at that figure? I just put $150 million into an interest-rate calculator online and discovered that at 1% interest, each team would be on the hook for $750,000 per year -- for 25 years. At a 10-year amortization, each team would owe $1.75M per year.

[1971GreyCup]

Used the GoC 30 year bond is currently yielding 1.16%. Consider the benchmark for long term borrowing. Nine teams. Given the assumption that higher than normal inflation will result from the pandemic, payback burden would be minimized.

I’d argue the cultural impact of the permanent loss of the Grey Cup Festival would not be just on a small, special interest group.

[Mightygoose]

Clearly the league thinks it’s a reasonable ask or they wouldn’t have asked.

Five hundred million dollars was already allocated for Sports & Culture. Check off two boxes for the CFL.

Who knows, they may have asked for a loan and not a straight handout. The feds have access to historically low interest rates. Right now the Government of Canada pays just over 1% for interest. Under this scenario a team would be on the hook for about $500,000 per year. I am sure that’s a fraction of the economic destruction of the end of the league in terms of facilities, employment and tourism.

Who knows, with a CFL survival plan and adequate capital, Halifax might use the crisis for an infrastructure initiative to stimulate the local economy.

Maybe under this scenario, the league might be able to then play in empty stadiums and keep the TV contract and survive.

I see it as a creative approach to save the league. We’ll soon see if the country agrees.

The league has been apparently speaking to the government since April 2 and using a lobbying firm along the way

https://www.sportsnet.ca/football/cf...tance-april-2/

Seems to me some time of spent fact finding and on what needed to be included in their application, I would think that includes their long term business plan post pandemic and their 'repayment strategy'.

These applications generally take weeks to put together so yesterday was the formal submission, it appears.

[Shatto]

The league will undoubtedly have been pursuing a number of avenues of support. These would probably have included discussions with government officials, as to the possibility and feasibility of different levels of support. The support could be grant(s), forgivable loan(s), no interest loan(s), future tax relief and possible combinations of some or all of those. The league might also have approached Bell, to see what considerations might be provided, such as a premium payment, if games are played in closed stadiums.

If the CFL suspended play this season, it is well within the realm of possibility that most Western division teams could bounce back in 2021 but that is less certain for some Eastern teams, especially the Argos. It becomes even more difficult if the CFL is the only league not to continue to play this season. I suspect we will hear more about the CFL's plans in the near future. These are challenging times for all but even more challenging for organizations that rely on mass gatherings for revenue. The CFL has overcome difficulties in the past, so hopefully the league will overcome this latest challenge,

[paulwoods13]

It appears the league is proposing to repay "in kind." Pretty tough sell, I'd say.

"Ambrosie has insisted that the CFL would find ways to pay back the $150 million if the government grants the request to help keep the league afloat. The league and its teams would not write a cheque to re-pay the funds — rather, the CFL has proposed an in-kind “payback” by involving players in the community and in charitable and government-sponsored programs, such as social programs, tourism videos and public health initiatives."

https://www.sportsnet.ca/football/cf...tance-april-2/

[paulwoods13]

Used the GoC 30 year bond is currently yielding 1.16%. Consider the benchmark for long term borrowing. Nine teams. Given the assumption that higher than normal inflation will result from the pandemic, payback burden would be minimized.

I’d argue the cultural impact of the permanent loss of the Grey Cup Festival would not be just on a small, special interest group.

None of that seems congruent with the online interest calculation (which did take into account nine teams). And amortization of 10 or 25 years.