It seems I neglected to factor in Ottawa, which at least in theory could still catch or surpass the Argos (although it would take both a miracle and an unfathomable collapse). Even if Ottawa did somehow win all of its remaining games, it's hard to see how Montreal -- which plays Ottawa twice -- or Hamilton would also be able to pass Toronto. Bottom line, I believe Toronto is almost certain to finish first if it splits with Montreal. Winning this week (or Hamilton losing) would definitely clinch a playoff spot, and if that happens the Argos will probably be no more than one more win away from clinching a home playoff game, and maybe two more wins from clinching first place. [But who knows -- this makes my head hurt.]
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