How to play the final six games

[Will]

Impressive indeed.

Back in 1989, I am pretty sure that Edmonton didn't rest a whole lot of people with roster size being so much smaller back then. To go 16-2 under the current conditions, where it's expected that you rest large numbers of players through a stretch like this, is even more impressive for the Argos IMO.

How early did the '89 Eskimos clinch?

[ArgoRavi]

How early did the '89 Eskimos clinch?

I am guessing that they clinched with 3 or 4 games left (2nd place Calgary was 10-8). However, roster sizes were much smaller back then so, for the most part, you just kept playing your starters to the end.

[ArgoRavi]

I see fans of other teams, mostly, blaming the loss yesterday on how the Argos played their final 6 games. I don't see a lot of merit in that argument although perhaps Kelly should have played in Winnipeg after all, as others have already noted.

What does everyone else think? Should the Argos have just rolled out their starters for most of these 6 games and faced Glen (I Am Deathly Afraid of Injuries) Suitor's wrath?

[Will]

I see fans of other teams, mostly, blaming the loss yesterday on how the Argos played their final 6 games. I don't see a lot of merit in that argument although perhaps Kelly should have played in Winnipeg after all, as others have already noted.

What does everyone else think? Should the Argos have just rolled out their starters for most of these 6 games and faced Glen (I Am Deathly Afraid of Injuries) Suitor's wrath?

He wasn't playing in front of a hostile crowd yesterday (until the unnecessary booing) which makes it even more disturbing.

[ArgoRavi]

He wasn't playing in front of a hostile crowd yesterday (until the unnecessary booing) which makes it even more disturbing.

I suspect that he pressed more because he was playing at home.

[paulwoods13]

I agreed with the Argos' basic strategy for those six games. I definitely wanted most key players to get a "bye week," and by my count about 18 guys got one. And we got to the Eastern Final in great health -- only one guy we relied on heavily (Adeboboye) was seriously injured during the final six weeks, IIRC. But it is absolutely appropriate to second-guess the strategy, given what happened yesterday. IMO Kelly hasn't played like early-season Kelly since Labour Day or thereabouts. So maybe he should have pressed pedal to the metal over the final six weeks. But the obvious counter to that is the fact we absolutely had to get meaningful playing time for Dukes, just in case.

[Will]

I agreed with the Argos' basic strategy for those six games. I definitely wanted most key players to get a "bye week," and by my count about 18 guys got one. And we got to the Eastern Final in great health -- only one guy we relied on heavily (Adeboboye) was seriously injured during the final six weeks, IIRC. But it is absolutely appropriate to second-guess the strategy, given what happened yesterday. IMO Kelly hasn't played like early-season Kelly since Labour Day or thereabouts. So maybe he should have pressed pedal to the metal over the final six weeks. But the obvious counter to that is the fact we absolutely had to get meaningful playing time for Dukes, just in case.

I dare say that he did not look the same after he signed that extension.

[ArgoRavi]

I dare say that he did not look the same after he signed that extension.

He played well over the final third but it felt that he didn't play quite as well as he did in the first two-thirds of the season.

[paulwoods13]

I dare say that he did not look the same after he signed that extension.

I don't know if that had anything to do with how he played the rest of the season, but I crunched some numbers.

In the first nine games he played, up to the date of the extension, he completed 149 of 213 passes (69.9%) for 2,402 yards (11.3 yards per pass), 18 touchdowns and seven INTs.

In the last seven regular-season games he played (sat out two), he completed 121 of 181 passes (66.8%) for 1,721 yards (9.5 yards per pass), five touchdowns and five INTs.

So definitely a poorer performance, at least statistically, in the second half of the season and post-extension. Make of that what you will.

[AngeloV]

I don't know if that had anything to do with how he played the rest of the season, but I crunched some numbers.

In the first nine games he played, up to the date of the extension, he completed 149 of 213 passes (69.9%) for 2,402 yards (11.3 yards per pass), 18 touchdowns and seven INTs.

In the last seven regular-season games he played (sat out two), he completed 121 of 181 passes (66.8%) for 1,721 yards (9.5 yards per pass), five touchdowns and five INTs.

So definitely a poorer performance, at least statistically, in the second half of the season and post-extension. Make of that what you will.

Today, it's hard to take stock in TD passes. I mean, how many 1 yard TD runs did he and Dukes both get over those games? if TD passes are down but you get more of those, is that really an accurate reflection of his play?

[paulwoods13]

Today, it's hard to take stock in TD passes. I mean, how many 1 yard TD runs did he and Dukes both get over those games? if TD passes are down but you get more of those, is that really an accurate reflection of his play?

I don't disagree, but I think most of Kelly's TD runs were in the first half of the season. And TD passes are only one area -- he was slightly worse in completion percentage, significantly worse in yards per pass, and slightly worse in INT percentage.

[argolio]

Good point about the TD passes. The completion percentages weren't too far apart. 9.5 yds./pass for a modern pro QB is fantastic. 11.3 is phenomenal. Not much drop-off in his performance that I can see.

Which leads me to the Argos running the ball nine times on 1st down in the first half. After the initial 19 yard gain, the next eight 1st down carries gained only 33 yards. If the goal was to exploit the Als' statistical weak run D over relying on our strength of Kelly producing big plays, it didn't work.

[ArgoRavi]

Good point about the TD passes. The completion percentages weren't too far apart. 9.5 yds./pass for a modern pro QB is fantastic. 11.3 is phenomenal. Not much drop-off in his performance that I can see.

Which leads me to the Argos running the ball nine times on 1st down in the first half. After the initial 19 yard gain, the next eight 1st down carries gained only 33 yards. If the goal was to exploit the Als' statistical weak run D over relying on our strength of Kelly producing big plays, it didn't work.

If the running game isn't working as well and you're stuck constantly in 2nd and long, that's a problem and we saw that the other day for sure. That definitely put more pressure on Kelly.

[Shatto]

The more Kelly played the better book the other teams would have on him, so one might expect to see his production drop a little. During the off season, I'm sure he and the coaches will be looking at the game films and for next year create schemes that allow Kelly to play to his strengths. It appeared Montreal did not blitz but dropped 8 or 9 into various coverages and that seemed to confuse Kelly somewhat. If Kelly had run more himself early in the game that may have forced Montreal to change tactics.

[AngeloV]

I don't disagree, but I think most of Kelly's TD runs were in the first half of the season. And TD passes are only one area -- he was slightly worse in completion percentage, significantly worse in yards per pass, and slightly worse in INT percentage.

Right, but that's because Dukes had the majority of the runs in the 2nd half of the season. Between him and Dukes, the QB's rushed for 16 TD's and the team had 30. That alone will take TD passes away from the QB's
I don't disagree it was a slight drop off in the 2nd half of the season. I think that was more to the fact the Argos were trying not to show anything with the division clinched. Unfortunately, tough to turn that switch back on when it's been off for so long. I was one that really didn't want to see Kelly miss any games down the stretch, especially game 18. That's a long time for a QB that has not started that many games in his career to sit between games. But I also understood that is a pro football philosophy. I just have never agreed with it. Not sure any other team had close to that.

Edit: Just did a count, Winnipeg was the only other team with over 20 rushing TD's, and they had 22. All others had 17 or less, so yeah, I am confident in saying the reason Kelly had fewer passing TD's in the 2nd half was because of the rushing TD's the team had.

[AngeloV]

. It appeared Montreal did not blitz but dropped 8 or 9 into various coverages and that seemed to confuse Kelly somewhat. If Kelly had run more himself early in the game that may have forced Montreal to change tactics.

Yes. Not finding an open receiver really frustrated him. He obviously should have taken off a few times early to get them out of that look. That's both on him and his coaches. That should have been emphasized to him mid way through the 2nd quarter.

[paulwoods13]

Yes. Not finding an open receiver really frustrated him. He obviously should have taken off a few times early to get them out of that look. That's both on him and his coaches. That should have been emphasized to him mid way through the 2nd quarter.

IMO it should have been part of the game plan, not an adjustment partway through. We voluntarily took away something that we are effective at, and it saved Mtl from having to defend against it.

[AngeloV]

IMO it should have been part of the game plan, not an adjustment partway through. We voluntarily took away something that we are effective at, and it saved Mtl from having to defend against it.

I agree. I was just saying that it easily could have been put in there half way through the 2nd when it was still a 1 score game. By the 4th quarter when it did happen, it was too late....even though we had a glimmer of hope until the KO return TD.

[OV Argo]

IMO it should have been part of the game plan, not an adjustment partway through. We voluntarily took away something that we are effective at, and it saved Mtl from having to defend against it.

Maybe it should have, but no CFL HC/OCs game plan a running QB as a strategy; not Maas with Fajardo; not Ottawa with Crum even after he showed he could run well; not BC with an athletic QB in Adams; and not ego-Jones with a blazing fast QB in Ford at his disposal. It just does not compute for your typical myopic CFL offensive thinker - they will defer to their one basic run play to the main RB, and then it's mostly QB sitting in pocket having to make reads.

I don't believe RD game planned or counted on Kelly running a lot this season; it is a nice luxury to have - a very mobile, run threat QB - but game planning and play-calling to take full advantage is another matter. And I did not notice the Als in that 3-2-7 look I saw some in the East semi; at least not early in the game; the Argos moved well on their 1st drive with a mix of good runs and some downfield passing decent gainers, until that Dequoy pick. Instructing Kelly to run some after this might have been a smart adjustment to get the D to bite up more; but even after the Als had a decent lead and shoulda been in a prevent mode, Kelly still found Daniels wide-open well down the field for a 50+ yard TD - "can't go wrong when you go long" as Matt Dunigan likes to say. The other picks were just dumb decisions and poor throws - maybe from a panicked desperation to get scores quickly ?

[ArgoRavi]

Right, but that's because Dukes had the majority of the runs in the 2nd half of the season. Between him and Dukes, the QB's rushed for 16 TD's and the team had 30. That alone will take TD passes away from the QB's
I don't disagree it was a slight drop off in the 2nd half of the season. I think that was more to the fact the Argos were trying not to show anything with the division clinched. Unfortunately, tough to turn that switch back on when it's been off for so long. I was one that really didn't want to see Kelly miss any games down the stretch, especially game 18. That's a long time for a QB that has not started that many games in his career to sit between games. But I also understood that is a pro football philosophy. I just have never agreed with it. Not sure any other team had close to that.

Edit: Just did a count, Winnipeg was the only other team with over 20 rushing TD's, and they had 22. All others had 17 or less, so yeah, I am confident in saying the reason Kelly had fewer passing TD's in the 2nd half was because of the rushing TD's the team had.

I remember back in the 1980s and 1990s, with much smaller rosters, that you just played your starters right through to the end of the season. That's how Terry Greer got to the 2000 yard receiving mark in a meaningless but still memorable final game of the regular season. Yes, there was a risk of injuries but that happens every time a player steps on the field. The paranoia today from the likes of Glen Suitor has gotten ridiculous.