The next 25 yrs for CFL franchises in Toronto, Montreal & Vancouver?

[1971GreyCup]

Growing up in Toronto in the 1960's and 1970s, I am astounded that the CFL has been left behind by all the other major league teams in support and their franchise values. In 1988, Harry Ornest sold the Argos for $5 million to Bruce McNall, Wayne Gretzky and John Candy. I don't think Bell Media/Larry Taunenbaum paid that price in almost 30 years later.

Since 1988, Toronto's other local sports franchise values have grown exponentially. New kid on the block, Toronto FC has really overachieved:

- Blue Jays: $1.3 b*
- Maple Leafs: $1.1 b*
- Raptors: $1.1 b*
- TFC: $245 m *
- CFL Franchise fee: $7 m **
- Toronto Rock: $1 m

*Forbes valuation in USD
**Ottawa RedBlacks

Can the CFL survive and grow given its' dismal performance in Canada's major metropolitan areas? Will the impending cable-cutting millennials undermine the longterm CFL prospects? Any ideas where the league should go from here?

[paulwoods13]

In all large professional leagues, the purpose of ownership has evolved from winning and making profit and ego gratification to increasing franchise value exponentially. I think this is why Braley continues to not sell the Lions -- he wants to get $20M (or something like that) after paying $1M (or something like that). I don't see the type of value growth we have seen in other leagues ever happening in the CFL. The league is too small and most of its markets are too small for that to happen. There's a ceiling on what TV will pay for the rights, and I suspect we have already hit that ceiling since by the time the contract comes up for renewal, both OTA and cable will have lost many more customers (if those platforms even still exist by then).

[1971GreyCup]

TFC's outlier value seems to be a combination of ESPN TV deal plus split of MLS league growth (6 new MLS teams willing to pay $150 million to join). That seems unsustainable. TFC franchise value excludes stadium ownership (BMO Field owned by City of Toronto). ESPN is unlikely to be able to maintain or increase the TV contract.

[wb70ss]

I think the Argos have a lot of good things going on more positive than negative .Number one Change the logo back to the boat people love it and looks awsome And Lots of positive talk of the argos on the Jay and Dan show on TSN and on CP 24

[argolio]

MLS sounds like a huge ponzie scheme to me, but it seems to survive by continually finding rich owners. Whether they can sustain that model long-term, who knows?

At its core, football is a blue-collar sport. With the coming of multi-million and then billion-dollar TV contracts, and the growth of the gambling industry, pro football went from a fringe sport to mass white-collar appeal in the U.S.

Today, Toronto's blue-collar industries are almost entirely gone, gambling is limited and tightly controlled by the government (for better or worse), and billion-dollar rights fees in Canada for anything other than hockey is a pipe-dream.

The 1971 version of Toronto (or even 1991) is gone forever, sad to say.

[S.A.C.]

Can the CFL survive and grow given its' dismal performance in Canada's major metropolitan areas? Will the impending cable-cutting millennials undermine the longterm CFL prospects?"Grow" might be a little optimistic, but as long as it remains popular in the other cities, that should be enough to keep the league going.
I don't see the type of value growth we have seen in other leagues ever happening in the CFL. The league is too small and most of its markets are too small for that to happen. There's a ceiling on what TV will pay for the rights, and I suspect we have already hit that ceiling since by the time the contract comes up for renewal, both OTA and cable will have lost many more customers (if those platforms even still exist by then).I think the present TV deal goes to the end of 2021? If the TV money eventually drops significantly, I would assume the salary cap would drop proportionally. I think guys still play in Arena Football for less than the CFL pays?

[R.J]

$1 million seems low for the Toronto Rock considering the owners for the two new expansion NLL teams paid $5 million for each, and the last team that was sold (Rochester Knighthawks), sold for $5.75 million.

As for the NFL, it will be interesting to see if they continue to grow, since media numbers (not just tv) are declining. It's been reported that even with the old tv deals, the networks were losing money, good luck to the NFL in trying to get another $2 Billion annually from ESPN on the next go around.

[Bruro]

Hate to say but the only thing holding the CFL together now is that juicy TSN tv deal they got which will expire in 2021? TSN bought in when CFL was on the upswing and theres no way they will pony up 40 mill a year now! If not CFL is as good as dead as attendance has been dropping steadily (and not just big three markets) but everywhere except Regina and Ottawa. (...and Ottawa smells of novelty- new team that wins a grey cup and funky new digs). We may have to say this but we may be near the end. 5-10 years?

[ArgoGabe22]

Hate to say but the only thing holding the CFL together now is that juicy TSN tv deal they got which will expire in 2021? TSN bought in when CFL was on the upswing and theres no way they will pony up 40 mill a year now! If not CFL is as good as dead as attendance has been dropping steadily (and not just big three markets) but everywhere except Regina and Ottawa. (...and Ottawa smells of novelty- new team that wins a grey cup and funky new digs). We may have to say this but we may be near the end. 5-10 years?

What are you on?

[gilthethrill]

Hate to say but the only thing holding the CFL together now is that juicy TSN tv deal they got which will expire in 2021? TSN bought in when CFL was on the upswing and theres no way they will pony up 40 mill a year now! If not CFL is as good as dead as attendance has been dropping steadily (and not just big three markets) but everywhere except Regina and Ottawa. (...and Ottawa smells of novelty- new team that wins a grey cup and funky new digs). We may have to say this but we may be near the end. 5-10 years?

https://youtu.be/37OWL7AzvHo

[argolio]

I think guys still play in Arena Football for less than the CFL pays?Much less.


As for the NFL, it will be interesting to see if they continue to grow, since media numbers (not just tv) are declining. It's been reported that even with the old tv deals, the networks were losing money, good luck to the NFL in trying to get another $2 Billion annually from ESPN on the next go around.I've been reading stories predicting the next NFL TV contract would be lower since the 80s. I'll believe it when I see it.

[R.J]

I've been reading stories predicting the next NFL TV contract would be lower since the 80s. I'll believe it when I see it.
Over $3 Billion to $300-$400 million, I agree, I don't see that much of a drop.

The Sinclair Group (owners of Tribune and American Sports Network) are said to be interested in the NFL's next deal, as are TBS/TNT. TNT is currently paying the NBA about $2.7 Billion annually for ratings that are considerably lower than the NFL's, so I guess you never know. Digital media is also growing at a rapid pass: I could see someone overpaying.

[rdavies]

After seeing what they paid for rights to Senators games I can see TSN giving the CFL some decent money again to keep one of their few decent drawing properties. That alone allows them to program "non sports days" like Thursday and Friday and get much better than average numbers. Unfortunately that is the kind of thing that is killing the CFL's live gate.

And with cord cutting going up and cable numbers being down across the board the CFL has to diversify beyond cable. They've got to get back on CTV and CBC which have a 20 percent larger reach than cable which will only get worse with cord cutting.

Speaking of which anyone out there use Kodi? For those who don't have the time to do the reading there is a way to use it easily and legally.