Chad Kelly's Interceptions

[Scooter McCray]

I thought this topic deserves it's own thread.

Like most Argo fans, I get frustrated when Chad throws an interception, especially when they seem to look like "What is he doing?" "Who is he throwing to?" "Why is he throwing it?"

I decided to go back and look at his breakdown by game of his season 27 TDs vs. 18 INTs so far in 2026.

In the 6 losses Chad has thrown 12 TDs to 7 INTs for a ratio of 1.71
In the 6 wins Chad has thrown 15 TDs to 11 INTs for a ratio of 1.36 - most notably his 2 games where he threw 4 INTs were both wins this year.

He has not thrown 3 INTs in a game. He has 2 games with 2 INTs that were both losses.
He has 6 games with 1 INT and the record is 3-3
He has 2 games with 0 INT and the record is 1-1

The loss in Montreal he was 3:1. He was not the reason they lost. They led most of that game. A blocked punt Montreal returned for a TD was the culprit.

The blowout in Calgary 58-36, he was 3:2. That was a shared team loss. Defence was not good. He was not the reason they lost.

The loss in Winnipeg against Dru Brown, Chad did not throw a pick at all. Special teams killed them, he was not reason for loss.

The loss in Hamilton, Chad went 1:1, and led them down for an easy game winning FG on the last drive of the game. He did not lose them that game.

The blowout loss in Edmonton, Chad was 0:1. A total team loss. His one pick was NOT the reason for defeat.

The loss in Saskatchewan, Chad was 3:2. The offence went to sleep in the second half. He had a strong first half and they almost pulled off 2 wins in Regina against defending champs on their field inside of 7 weeks of each other.

When I look at this, Chad's gunslinging and risk taking has not cost them games. None of these losses can be put on him and his picks. In fact, in the losses his TD:INT ratio is significantly better. In the wins he has thrown 57% more interceptions.

When he says he doesn't want to be a game manager, he is correct.

The Wildcard in all of this, is, we all witnessed the 2023 East Final loss where he threw 4 interceptions, 2 of which went for pick sixes. The Argo defence that day sacked Cody Fajardo 7 times and played a championship game. Chad cost the Argos that game and likely another GC title.

Interceptions matter. But they really do not tell the story of the 2026 Argonauts and are not the reason for their record. But in the playoffs when every play matters, throwing 4 INTs is not advisable.

[IssuesMcgee]

The team is 4-2 in their last 6 after a rough start to the season. The difference between then and now is that defence, special teams and the run game has improved significantly.

[Don_from_Dryden]

I thought this topic deserves it's own thread.

Like most Argo fans, I get frustrated when Chad throws an interception, especially when they seem to look like "What is he doing?" "Who is he throwing to?" "Why is he throwing it?"

I decided to go back and look at his breakdown by game of his season 27 TDs vs. 18 INTs so far in 2026.

In the 6 losses Chad has thrown 12 TDs to 7 INTs for a ratio of 1.71
In the 6 wins Chad has thrown 15 TDs to 11 INTs for a ratio of 1.36 - most notably his 2 games where he threw 4 INTs were both wins this year.

He has not thrown 3 INTs in a game. He has 2 games with 2 INTs that were both losses.
He has 6 games with 1 INT and the record is 3-3
He has 2 games with 0 INT and the record is 1-1

The loss in Montreal he was 3:1. He was not the reason they lost. They led most of that game. A blocked punt Montreal returned for a TD was the culprit.

The blowout in Calgary 58-36, he was 3:2. That was a shared team loss. Defence was not good. He was not the reason they lost.

The loss in Winnipeg against Dru Brown, Chad did not throw a pick at all. Special teams killed them, he was not reason for loss.

The loss in Hamilton, Chad went 1:1, and led them down for an easy game winning FG on the last drive of the game. He did not lose them that game.

The blowout loss in Edmonton, Chad was 0:1. A total team loss. His one pick was NOT the reason for defeat.

The loss in Saskatchewan, Chad was 3:2. The offence went to sleep in the second half. He had a strong first half and they almost pulled off 2 wins in Regina against defending champs on their field inside of 7 weeks of each other.

When I look at this, Chad's gunslinging and risk taking has not cost them games. None of these losses can be put on him and his picks. In fact, in the losses his TD:INT ratio is significantly better. In the wins he has thrown 57% more interceptions.

When he says he doesn't want to be a game manager, he is correct.

The Wildcard in all of this, is, we all witnessed the 2023 East Final loss where he threw 4 interceptions, 2 of which went for pick sixes. The Argo defence that day sacked Cody Fajardo 7 times and played a championship game. Chad cost the Argos that game and likely another GC title.

Interceptions matter. But they really do not tell the story of the 2026 Argonauts and are not the reason for their record. But in the playoffs when every play matters, throwing 4 INTs is not advisable.

Interceptions on first down are the bad ones. Turnovers on second down are almost a punt given Kelly likes to go deep.

Not sure which down the ints are coming on but second and long would increase the % of opportunities. A 4 yd check down doesn't move the sticks.

[AngeloV]

Kelly gets the heat, but I would say at least half his picks can be attributed to the receivers.

[Argoriffic]

Kelly's too in love with his arm talent, which I get, but maybe show some better decision making?

[Unplayable]

Kelly has thrown for 3961 yds, 27 TDs, with 18 Ints
Alexander has thrown for 3954 yds, with 25 TDs, and 2 Ints
Harris has thrown for 3893 yds with 24 TDs and 11 Ints
Fajardo has thrown for 3549 yds with 20 TDs and 7 Ints

Compare the win loss records of those teams.

Kelly has lost potential points for his team, has put opposing offences and his own defence on the field 18 times. Those things can have an impact on the outcome of games.

Kelly doesn’t want to be called a “game manager” but there are times when keeping the other teams offence off the field, and not having to rely on your own average defence to stop the other team is definitely desirable.

[gilthethrill]

Kelly has thrown for 3961 yds, 27 TDs, with 18 Ints
Alexander has thrown for 3954 yds, with 25 TDs, and 2 Ints
Harris has thrown for 3893 yds with 24 TDs and 11 Ints
Fajardo has thrown for 3549 yds with 20 TDs and 7 Ints

Compare the win loss records of those teams.

Kelly has lost potential points for his team, has put opposing offences and his own defence on the field 18 times. Those things can have an impact on the outcome of games.

Kelly doesn’t want to be called a “game manager” but there are times when keeping the other teams offence off the field, and not having to rely on your own average defence to stop the other team is definitely desirable.

Before you blame Kelly for the loss of potential points....how does the unexpected struggles of Liram H & then Lidster go unmentioned? 72% suceess when 85%+ is the norm? How many times did Kelly put the team in a position to score key FGs? The FG kicking has cost the Argos 3 games at least this season. I am not even going to get started on how the World Cup put the team in a bind.

[IssuesMcgee]

Kelly has thrown for 3961 yds, 27 TDs, with 18 Ints
Alexander has thrown for 3954 yds, with 25 TDs, and 2 Ints
Harris has thrown for 3893 yds with 24 TDs and 11 Ints
Fajardo has thrown for 3549 yds with 20 TDs and 7 Ints

Compare the win loss records of those teams.

Kelly has lost potential points for his team, has put opposing offences and his own defence on the field 18 times. Those things can have an impact on the outcome of games.

Kelly doesn’t want to be called a “game manager” but there are times when keeping the other teams offence off the field, and not having to rely on your own average defence to stop the other team is definitely desirable.

Before you blame Kelly for the loss of potential points....how does the unexpected struggles of Liram H & then Lidster go unmentioned? 72% suceess when 85%+ is the norm? How many times did Kelly put the team in a position to score key FGs? The FG kicking has cost the Argos 3 games at least this season. I am not even going to get started on how the World Cup put the team in a bind.

Also when a team straight up refuses to utilize a run game, it puts more pressure on the QB.

[Unplayable]

The discussion I was referring to was whether or not Kelly’s interceptions matter, not whether or not the kickers have been screwing up too much. One thing I didn’t mention is that Kelly has thrown so many interceptions that I don’t think it costs the Argos an emotional momentum shift, although the other teams and their fans do get a lift from them.

I certainly agree that Kelly is not responsible for the kicker’s mistakes (coincidentally all together they have missed 18 kicks). I suppose from that point of view if I was a glass half full kind of person, I would view the 18 interceptions in a positive light as they are 18 drives where the kickers did not have a chance to screw up

[argolio]

He had fours picks each in two wins and three in other wins, which brings us down to seven in six losses,. He had no picks in one loss, so it's really seven in five losses: one @ MTL, two @ CAL, one @ HAM, one @ EDM, and two @ SASK.

Other than Saskatchewan, doesn't seem like his picks were costly. Am I wrong?